Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
